Welcome to the February edition of the Bearning Newsletter.

Recent publications from the FSB, BIS and ECB once again confirm that structural liquidity, funding resilience, and behavioral modelling of deposits remain central topics for banks in 2026. The lessons from recent market turbulence are still highly relevant — especially for Asset & Liability Management (ALM), Treasury, and risk functions.

At the same time, professional corporate governance and the quality of engagement by bank boards are becoming increasingly important. Supervisors expect non-executive directors not only to understand capital ratios, but also to actively challenge ALM assumptions, liquidity risk, and strategic balance sheet positioning. Alongside these themes, we continue to focus on practical regulatory topics, including AML in the digital era — a subject we recently covered in boards consulting as well as in one of our live courses.

1. Insights for Banking Professionals

📘 FSB: Structural Liquidity, Funding Risk and Balance Sheet Resilience

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) recently published a highly relevant paper analyzing structural liquidity, funding risk and balance sheet resilience in banks. The key message is clear: liquidity resilience cannot be assessed only through regulatory ratios such as LCR or NSFR. Structural funding composition, repo market dynamics, collateral usability and funding concentration play a crucial role — especially under stress conditions. Among the important observations:

• Funding structures can amplify stress even when headline liquidity ratios appear comfortable
• Government bond liquidity and repo markets are central to systemic resilience
• Margin calls and collateral valuation shifts can create procyclical pressure
• Structural liquidity buffers must go beyond minimum regulatory requirements

For ALM and Treasury professionals, this reinforces the importance of forward-looking liquidity planning and integrated balance sheet steering.

👉 Read my LinkedIn commentary to this topic here, and 👉 Access the original FSB publication here: Vulnerabilities in Government Bond-backed Repo Markets - Financial Stability Board

🏦 BIS: What Do “Stable Deposits” Really Mean?

Another important contribution comes from the BIS, which reviewed how banks model non-maturing deposits (NMDs) and what “deposit stability” actually means in practice. In many institutions, current and savings accounts are treated as stable funding. However, the BIS analysis shows:

• Behavioral maturities differ significantly across banks
• Digitalization and mobile banking can accelerate deposit movements
• Deposit stickiness depends on insurance coverage, customer type and rate sensitivity
• Modelling assumptions were not always sufficiently adjusted after the 2022–2023 rate shock

For ALM, liquidity management and IRRBB frameworks, this directly affects:

• FTP maturity assignment
• Non-maturity Deposit modelling
• EVE and NII sensitivity outcomes
• Liquidity stress assumptions

The core conclusion is not that deposits are unstable — but that behavioral modelling must be realistic, regularly validated, and consistent with market developments.

👉 Read my LinkedIn to this topic commentary here, and 👉 Read the full BIS paper here: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/wp47.pdf

👥 ECB: Engagement of Non-Executive Directors in Banks

The ECB published an analysis on the engagement and effectiveness of non-executive directors in the banking sector. Supervisors increasingly expect board members to:

• Understand interest rate and liquidity risk drivers in detail
• Challenge ALM modelling assumptions
• Engage in strategic balance sheet discussions
• Ensure meaningful risk reporting

This is highly relevant for bank senior management and supervisory board members. ALM is not only a technical function — it is a strategic steering discipline that directly influences profitability, resilience and long-term stability.

👉 Read my LinkedIn post on this topic here.

2. Bearning Activities – ALM in Practice

From Regulatory Compliance to Strategic Steering

If recent publications from the FSB, BIS and ECB have one common denominator, it is this: balance sheet structure still matters. Asset & Liability Management is not a regulatory reporting exercise. It is a strategic discipline that determines how a bank performs under stress, how it protects its margin, and how it positions itself in changing interest rate environments.

In many institutions, ALM is still perceived primarily through the lens of IRRBB metrics, liquidity ratios or FTP allocations. However, recent market developments — from rapid rate cycles to digital deposit dynamics — demonstrate that modelling assumptions, behavioral maturity estimates and funding structure analysis must continuously evolve. A professional ALM framework integrates structural liquidity, deposit modelling, Funds Transfer Pricing and scenario analysis into one coherent steering concept.

This was also the central theme of my recent presentation in Prague, where I spoke about interest rate risk within a broader seminar on risk management and stress testing. The discussion focused on how interest rate shocks transmit through the balance sheet — affecting both economic value and net interest income — and how behavioral assumptions about deposits and repricing gaps significantly influence results.

Beyond ALM, we continue to work with banks on related areas such as AML in the digital era, governance expectations for boards, and regulatory interpretation. But ALM remains one of the most requested and strategically relevant topics — particularly in the current environment of margin pressure and funding competition. Reflecting this market demand, Bearning will host two focused ALM webinars designed as consecutive deep-dive sessions:

• Day 1: Funds Transfer Pricing & Quantitative Planning Explained - This session will explore how FTP curves are constructed, how internal pricing links Treasury and business units, and how quantitative planning tools support profitability steering and scenario analysis.
• Day 2: Non-Maturing Deposits (NMDs) Modelling - This webinar will concentrate on behavioral maturity modelling, non-maturing deposit (NMD), IRRBB implications, and the practical challenges of modelling deposit stability in a digital banking environment.

Both sessions are designed to complement each other. We therefore encourage participants to attend both days to gain a comprehensive view of modern ALM practice. For this reason, we offer a combined bundle of both at a more advantageous price: 👉 https://study.bearning.com/bundles/ftp-and-nmd-modelling-webinars-bundle

Each webinar bundle also includes:

• Access to related structured e-learning courses
• A certificate after successful completion
• Bearning Excel-based ALM models
• Practical case studies implemented in the QuantALM system, including input and output datasets provided in Excel for hands-on analysis

Early Bird Savings – 10% Discount: Participants booking an individual webinar session until the end of February can benefit from a 10% early bird discount using the coupon code: ALM10ERL . For those registering for the combined two-day bundle, the early bird discount is extended until the end of March.

The objective is not only to explain regulatory requirements, but to strengthen practical understanding of how balance sheet steering works in reality — linking modelling assumptions, FTP design and strategic management decisions.

3. Kurzy v slovenskom jazyku

Vo februári sme v Bearning realizovali viacero odborných kurzov pre banky a finančné inštitúcie. Zamerali sme sa najmä na oblasti riadenia rizík a regulácie, digitalizácie, ale aj KYC a AML. Ako príklad uvádzame dva z nich:

🔹 Jedným z realizovaných školení bol in-house kurz venovaný téme Riziká a zlyhania bánk. Kurz sa sústredil na identifikáciu a meranie hlavných bankových rizík – úrokového, likviditného, kreditného a trhového rizika – a ich prepojenie na konkrétne prípady zlyhaných bánk z posledných rokov. Účastníci analyzovali bilančné štruktúry, manažérske rozhodnutia a slabé miesta v riadení bankových rizík. Diskusia sa prirodzene dotkla aj otázky, ako interpretovať stresové scenáre a ako by mali výstupy z risk reportingu využívať členovia manažmentu a dozorných rád.

🔹 Vo februári sme realizovali aj kurz zameraný na Anti-Money Laundering (AML) a Know-Your Customer (KYC) v kontexte digitálnej transformácie finančného sektora. Regulácia AML sa dynamicky vyvíja – nielen v dôsledku nových európskych pravidiel, ale aj vplyvom digitalizácie, online onboardingu klientov a rýchleho rozmachu umelej inteligencie.

Diskutovali sme najmä:

• využitie AI nástrojov pri monitorovaní transakcií,
• riziká spojené s digitálnymi kanálmi a fintech prostredím,
• očakávania regulátorov v oblasti governance a interných kontrol,
• praktické príklady nedostatkov z kontrolných zistení.

AML dnes nie je len compliance téma – je to strategická otázka reputácie a stability finančných inštitúcií. Vzhľadom na pretrvávajúci záujem o túto tému, zrealizujeme tento seminár ešte koncom mája alebo začiatkom júna.

📅 Prehľad pripravovaných Bearning kurzov – Marec a Apríl 2026

V najbližších týždňoch nás čaká séria odborných kurzov. Radi by sme upriamili pozornosť na budúci týždeň, kde sa budeme venovať kapitálovým trhom a finančným nástrojom v regulácii MiFID II. Nemenej zaujímavé sú však aj ďalšie pripravované kurzy, napr. veľký prehľad o bankových reguláciách a vzájomných súvislostiach medzi jednotlivými oblasťami bankovníctva, alebo kryptoakíva a regulácia MiCA.

• 📅 3. 3. 2026 Kapitálový trh a spracovanie cenných papierov - Kurz poskytuje ucelený pohľad na fungovanie dlhopisových a akciových trhov, emisiu a obchodovanie cenných papierov, ako aj procesy zúčtovania, vyporiadania a evidencie. Je vhodný pre treasury, back-office, risk, compliance aj IT špecialistov.
• 📅 5. 3. 2026 Regulácia MiFID II - Zameranie na finančné nástroje a ochranu investora na finančných trhoch, správu finančných produktov, ich vhodnosť a primeranosť a aktuálne regulačné očakávania v tejto oblasti.
• 📅 12. 3. 2026 Kapitálový trh
• 📅 18. 3. 2026 Banková regulácia
• 📅 24. 3. 2026 Kryptoaktíva a regulácia MiCA
• 📅 14. 4. 2026 Úrokové riziká a regulácia IRRBB
• 📅 23. 4. 2026 Devízový trh a FX produkty
• 📅 28. 4. 2026 Finančná matematika na kapitálovom trhu
• 📅 29. 4. 2026 Umelá inteligencia (AI) v bankovníctve

Kompletný kalendár našich Bearning kurzov, podrobnosti a registráciu nájdete vždy na: 👉 https://bearning.sk

4. Banking Industry Quiz

Test Your Knowledge with Bearning’s Monthly Banking Quiz ✅❌❔

This month’s quiz is inspired by our focus on ALM, risks and bank failures, and discussion on structural liquidity and deposit stability. As recent publications have shown, funding structure still plays a crucial role in a bank’s resilience under stress. Not all deposits behave the same way — and understanding their characteristics is central to modern bank ALM.

❓ Which of the following most directly increases a bank’s structural liquidity risk?

• A) Higher CET1 ratio
• B) Large share of uninsured deposits
• C) Higher share of fixed-rate loans
• D) Lower cost-to-income ratio

👉 The correct answer and explanation will be published in our March newsletter.

5. Quiz Solution Corner ✅

Review and Learn from Last Month’s Quiz

❓ Question: As of the end of January 2026, what is the approximate total market capitalization of all stablecoins combined?

• A) Around USD 50 billion
• B) Around USD 120 billion
• C) Around USD 300 billion
• D) More than USD 1 trillion

✅ Correct answer: C) Around USD 300 billion

Explanation:

By the end of January 2026, the total market capitalization of all stablecoins combined was approximately in the range of USD 280–320 billion, depending on daily fluctuations. The market is dominated by USD-denominated stablecoins, primarily USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle), which together account for the majority of outstanding supply. Stablecoins have expanded significantly since 2023, supported by:

• Growing use in crypto trading and decentralized finance (DeFi)
• Increasing adoption in cross-border payments
• Greater regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions (e.g., the US GENIUS Act or EU MiCA)
• Institutional interest in tokenized money and digital settlement rails

While USD 300 billion is still small relative to the global banking system, the growth trajectory and concentration in short-dated government securities make stablecoins increasingly relevant for financial markets.

Why does this matter for banking?

For banks, stablecoins are no longer a fringe crypto topic. Their reserve structures often include short-term U.S. Treasury bills and repos, which means stablecoin inflows and outflows can influence money market conditions.

From an ALM and Treasury perspective, this has implications for:

• Liquidity assumptions
• Deposit competition and funding stability
• Regulatory and supervisory developments
• Yield dynamics

Stablecoins are becoming part of the broader liquidity ecosystem that banks operate in — and therefore deserve attention from risk managers, treasurers and board members alike.

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